Gold and Oil Price Trends: Evening Trading Tips for Europe and America

On October 8th, in the Asian market, spot gold experienced minor fluctuations, currently trading near $2,643.14 per ounce. Previously, the Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that a slower rate cut of 25 basis points might be adopted. Subsequently, the release of the strong U.S. September non-farm data led to a decrease in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November from 53% to 10%, suppressing the rise of gold. On the other hand, the market has increased its bets on separate 25 basis point rate cuts in November and December, while the tense situation in the Middle East continues to attract safe-haven buying, providing support for gold.

The daily chart has confirmed the pattern of a potential correction after touching near 2660 and then stepping back, marking the first time in nearly ten trading sessions that it has fallen below the 5-day moving average. The current support from the moving averages on the daily chart is around 2620-15. On the 4-hour gold chart, the downward trend is becoming more apparent. Gold has once again experienced a rise and subsequent fall, gradually opening up the downward space. The short-term indicators are weak relative to the price lines, indicating a continued retracement on the 4-hour chart. The short-term support at the low of 2630 for gold remains a key focus. For today's trading, we temporarily look at the range of 2650-2630 for high and low trading. A breakout could see a spillover of about 10 points. Resistance is suggested to be referenced at 2650 (±2) and 2660 (±2) for short positions, and support is suggested to be referenced at 2630 (±2) and 2620 (±2) for long positions.

On October 8th, in the Asian market, WTI crude oil experienced minor fluctuations, currently trading near $75.84 per barrel. Iran is an important oil-producing country in the Middle East, with daily oil production exceeding 3 million barrels, and it controls the globally significant oil transportation route, the Strait of Hormuz. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to the blockade of Persian Gulf oil transportation, 12 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil exports would be affected daily. Changes in the Middle East situation may increase the urgency for the U.S. to replenish its oil reserves. Under the expanding influence of Middle Eastern geopolitical situations, the geopolitical premium on crude oil prices may continue.

Crude oil continued its bullish trend yesterday, stabilizing at around $73.6 and reaching a high point of $77.4 where it encountered resistance and fluctuated. On the 4-hour oil chart, the Bollinger Bands continued to move upwards. Oil prices fluctuated within the upper and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, with the lowest point reaching around $75.3. This morning, shortly after the market opened, influenced by news, there was a wave of up and down sweeping, with oil prices rising to $78.4, further indicating that the bullish push is taking the initiative. On the 1-hour oil chart, the Bollinger Bands show signs of converging. The oil price first rose and then fell within a range of about 30 points during the day. Further breakthroughs will be seen in the European and American sessions. The short-term range for the day is around 75.3-78.4. Resistance is suggested to be referenced at 77.4 (±2) and 78.2 (±2) for short positions. Support is suggested to be referenced at 75.3 (±2) and 74.4 (±2) for long positions.